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Investing Linkfest 4/17/08

17 April 2008 3 views One Comment

Optimism abounds with the market resolutely shaking off bad news while focusing myopically on the good, or relatively good, news. The cheerleaders on CNBC (GE) can scarcely be heard uttering the dreadful words of inflation, recession, stagnation, credit crisis, and foreclosures. Happily, they talk about earnings beats. Surprisingly, there are a number of really substantial earnings beats that seem to justify the current sanguine tone of the market.

A lot of the beats thus far have come from blue chip companies that dominate their industries and sectors. Logically, this makes sense. If we are in a recessionary environment, only our very best companies will be able to capture market share. Secondary companies or second tier competitors will lose market share in tough environments. I suspect that the cash coffers of the Fortune 500 will soon start to be deployed, resulting in a nice pickup in mergers and acquisitions activity and the buying of market share. Beware the rash of earnings reports coming from the middling middle of our corporate roll call.

Now, on with the ceremony:

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript – The maker of the revolutionary da Vinci robotic surgical system, this has been a growth stock for the future and the recent past, but apparently not for the present. After hours, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) reported EPS growth of 81% and sales growth of 65%. These numbers actually beat estimates, something this company has become habitually good at doing. However, the beat was not as large as previous beats and the stock dove 8.6% in after hours trading. Come again? Kudos to the boys at Bespoke Investment Group for calling the potential for a “bad beat.” Full Disclosure: I currently have a long or short position in ISRG in one or more of my private investment partnerships.

IBM shares rise to highest price in 6 years after earnings – Big Blue (IBM) is one of the primary drivers of this recent rally. While everyone was gloomily expecting credit crisis-sickened earnings, the House That Watson Built comes out with an outstanding report. Net income rose a whopping 26% while revenue grew 11% during the first quarter. I have to quibble here with the unalloyed euphoric reaction. The ability to cut or manage costs is exactly what is needed in a recessionary environment and while revenue grew healthily, this is not a case of sales growth keeping in line with profit growth. Everyone else is taking this bellwether stock as indicating unexpected strength in the technology sector. Extrapolation is a dangerous game to play. IBM’s domestic business represents only 35% of total revenues. Unless your small-cap technology stock has a global presence, you may be disappointed yet.

Russia’s White Gold – Cramer is an entertaining fellow. He’s onto the story of how American food conglomerates are beginning to crave Russian food makers. Gobble, gobble, gobble, buying on acquisition speculation is for turkeys. Wimm Bill Dann (WBD) is one such Russian food maker and has benefited from the worldwide inflation of food prices. I’ve mentioned before that food inflation will make us all a little hungrier and Ben Bernanke’s job a little harder.

Crown Holdings sets high following jump in 1Q profit – Population growth in emerging countries is one of the main drivers of the growing demand for food. Someone’s got to package all that food to meet exploding demand from a burgeoning global marketplace. Crown Holdings (CCK) has been a big beneficiary of the demand for food and thus the derivative demand for packaging for food. Beware the toxic balance sheet. Beware even more the equally strong inflation in raw materials. Basic metals for beverage cans have seen strong price advances. Oil’s record-setting price march will surely increase the cost of plastic packaging.

Amphenol raises 2008 profit, sales outlook above estimates – My skepticism of IBM and the rest of the technology sector is made to look silly as smaller player in technology also beats comfortably. Amphenol (APH), a maker of fiber optic cables and connectors reported that sales rose 18% while income saw a 25% jump. Demand for bandwidth remains strong as countless millions waste precious minutes watching stupid videos on YouTube for free. Someone has to produce the digital pipes that make our devolved entertainment needs possible. Oh, did I mention that Google (GOOG) also pleased Wall Street with a rosy earnings report? I’m looking stupider and stupider by the minute.

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One Comment »

  • Investing Linkfest 4/27/08 said:

    [...] couple weeks ago, I wrote about my pessimism regarding the technology sector. The market had seemed to interpret the surprisingly good results reported by Big Blue (IBM), [...]

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