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Investing Linkfest 5/18/08

18 May 2008 5 views One Comment

The stock market’s rebound has been so fast and furious that it might make folks forget that we just experienced a nasty credit crisis and market downturn. Have sinking home values not registered with the national psyche? Surf around on Zillow.com and witness the vast amounts of wealth disappearing over the last few months as homeowners see their most significant asset crumbling on a shaky credit foundation. Of course, institutional money managers are the ones buying furiously and fueling this market rebound. It is entirely plausible that, unlike the average American, their homes are not their most significant asset. Maybe most of their wealth is stored in Swiss bank accounts, gold bullion, Impressionist paintings, or first edition copies of Superman and Batman. Thus, unlike Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain (average Americans all), hedge fund managers don’t feel your pain.

What's Hot What's Not 5/18/08But we are all shareholders now. Even as our home values continue to sink, our brokerage accounts are softening the pain as equities turned in a strong performance over the last week. Technology stocks, much to my chagrin, turned in a 3.4% pop. In investing, paradoxically, there is nothing as potentially humbling as having a strong opinion. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average followed the leader and also rallied impressively. Curiously, REIT stocks topped them all, suggesting that the market is discounting further weakness in real estate.

“Go East Young Man!” That ought to be the rallying cry for ambitious college graduates. Learn an Asian language and stake your future in emerging markets. While almost all equity markets have performed negatively over the last twelve months, emerging markets continue to appreciate at a blistering pace with Asia being a driving force. I count myself lucky that my parents taught me to speak Cantonese-Chinese. They displayed amazing persistence as I was not a receptive student to one of the most difficult languages in the world to master. I am still amazingly inept at it, but I could survive in Hong Kong and Guangzhou.

The Black Bubble inflated just a tiny bit. Nonetheless, crude oil set a new record high – topping $127 per barrel before settling at $126.02 per barrel. As the summer driving season approaches, will the high cost of oil discourage road warrior Americans from taking that trip to the Grand Canyon and other national monuments?

Macro

American corporations are flush with cash. Big blue chips are flush with cash. Mid-sized companies are flush with cash. Small capitalization technology companies are flush with cash; actually, a wide swath of technology companies is flush with cash. So while the major market indexes have rebounded strongly, many individual company stocks are still way off their price highs. We need more dudes like Carl Icahn.

Mr. Icahn last week announced that he had accumulated a significant stake in Yahoo! (YHOO) and plans to nominate an alternative board in order to force a sale of Yahoo! to Microsoft (MSFT). He contends that the current Yahoo! board acted irresponsibly by rejecting Microsoft’s buyout bid.

This is precisely the time for cash-rich companies to go shopping for fallen competitors on the cheap. If the pickings are slim, then they ought to deploy their cash and buy back shares. If corporate managers cannot put corporate coffers to good use by engaging in business activities that produce strong returns on investment (ROI), they should return that cash to shareholders.

There are plenty of situations that could use a good activist investor to spur intelligent deployment of cash. Smart acquisitions and stock buyback programs would further bolster the current rally. There are few good reasons, given the prevailing environment, to hoard cash.

Micro

CBS in $1.8B deal for online news, info site CNet – This is exactly what I’m talking about. CBS Corporation (CBS) has a decent balance sheet and plenty of cash to make this acquisition of CNet Networks (CNET). Startup entrepreneurs rejoice! With Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation (NWS-A) busily gobbling up web companies to bolster its Fox Interactive Media unit and Time Warner buying new properties in an attempt to make its eventual spinoff of AOL more attractive, the rest of the media giants will play lemming to catch up. Suddenly, everyone wants to be Web 2.0! Here’s a very informative piece from Amy Webb showing who owns what in Web 2.0 – a handy thing to keep at the side of your desk if you’re a venture capitalist with some Web 2.0 in your portfolio:

Who Owns What by Amy Webb

Meet Carl Icahn’s Yahoo Board – Let’s revisit the drama that is Yahoo! Mark Cuban is on the alternative board. Cuban is the smart fellow who sold Broadcast.com for $5.7 billion at the height of the dotcom bubble. He also had the foresight to sell whatever shares he had for cold hard cash. In life, timing is everything. This time though, the payoff for Cuban will not be quite so lucrative. If Icahn is successful with this proxy battle, I liken Cuban’s likely short stint, as a director, to community service. He’ll perform a service to the community of Yahoo! shareholders by forcing a sale to Microsoft.

Comcast to Acquire Plaxo – Here is one that doesn’t make sense, no matter how flush Comcast’s (CMCSA) coffers are. Did I mention that big media companies will begin to behave like lemmings? If the big cable giant is going to move into this space, it should also set its sights on LinkedIn.

Ask.com buys Dictionary.com parent Lexico – Ask.com, owned by IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) takes ownership of Lexico for a reported $100 million. IAC/InterActiveCorp is another one of these bigger tech companies with a boatload of cash. The options are simple – invest it, buy competitors, or return to shareholders. IAC/InterActiveCorp will undergo big changes itself as it prepares to spin off non-core properties.

Natus Shareholders Throw A Fit – Let’s look at a different kind of tech. Natus Medical (BABY) develops and sells medical devices that help in the screening, detecting, and monitoring of newborn conditions. It filed to issue a secondary public offering of 3.5 million shares. Shareholders reacted violently to the potential dilution, but the company is simply attempting to raise more cash in order to make more acquisitions. It is essentially the same theme being played out over in the software industry with Microsoft, AOL, and IAC/InterActiveCorp. Full Disclosure: I currently have a long or short position in BABY in one or more of my private investment partnerships.

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One Comment »

  • Investing Linkfest 5/27/08 said:

    [...] trending indexes. But the economic indicators were still trickling out rather bleakly and thus I reasoned that the rally was overdone. The equity markets proceeded to give back all their gains and then some last week. Luck was a lady [...]

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