Optimism abounds with the market resolutely shaking off bad news while focusing myopically on the good, or relatively good, news. The cheerleaders on CNBC (GE) can scarcely be heard uttering the dreadful words of inflation, recession, stagnation, credit crisis, and foreclosures. Happily, they talk about earnings beats. Surprisingly, there are a number of really substantial earnings beats that seem to justify the current sanguine tone of the market.
A lot of the beats thus far have come from blue chip companies that dominate their industries and sectors. Logically, this makes sense. …

Life is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” Thomas Hobbes might say the same about life in the stock market for hedge fund managers. The mortality rate found in the hedge fund world is extremely high; it is an ecosystem that is filled with predators and would-be predators. By mid-2007, an estimated 9,700 hedge funds controlled approximately $1.7 trillion in assets. According to Hedge Fund Research, 1,518 launched in 2006 and nearly as many called it quits. The battle for investment survival mirrors Hobbes’ State of Nature found in his …

As a renter, I’ve always thought that I had the advantage of not having to worry about property taxes, home maintenance, unruly tenants, and worst of all the illiquidity that homeowners or real estate investors suffer from. The real estate boom almost shook my conviction but the delirious giggles caused by incessant price appreciation and easy credit thankfully reached an audible decible. I reasoned that something was awry when my close friend, a U.S. Postal letter carrier at the time, managed to lever up with mortgages on three …

Macro

More pain in the housing market anticipated as some homeowners find themselves “underwater” or owing more on their homes than what their homes are worth on the market. According to Mark Zandi at Economy.com (MCO), 10% of all homeowners currently face this negative equity situation. Zandi also sees home prices falling 20% as the economy worsens into a recession. Zandi could be underestimating the damage; homeowners abandon their homes and mortgages at a high rate when they enter negative territory on their equity. Foreclosures and abandoned mortgages exacerbate the problem …