A few months ago I came across a piece by Jeff Nolan, titled Incrementalism and “The New New Thing,” which struck poignantly at a raw nerve. He called attention to the incrementalism gripping Silicon Valley despite the flush amount of capital available for startups. Much of the attention and hype has surrounded social networking and Web 2.0 startups but each new entry is a slight improvement over the previous. But only discontinuous, quantum leap innovations create disproportionate value. So what’s next?
Umair Haque’s An Open Challenge to Silicon Valley put it …

Facebook insiders have been selling their stock. Top level insiders such as directors from venture funds invested in Facebook, key executives and even Mark Zuckerberg himself have been quietly trying to unload some shares in private sales. These private transactions are not uncommon as startup entrepreneurs and their backers are often in search of some liquidity. What makes these particular transactions interesting are the implied values being negotiated.
When Microsoft (MSFT) bought a small stake in the wildly popular social network, the price paid implied an overall value of $15 billion. …

Last week, I attended Zions Bank’s (ZION) 7th Annual International Trade and Business Conference. Most of the speakers were very interesting. John Howard, the former Prime Minister of Australia, gave a lively keynote speech and subsequently fended off with aplomb the inane question of a clearly wide-eyed political science student from the university. Christopher Padilla, the United States Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade (that’s a mouthful), spoke about the opportunities in a world featuring an emerging power in China.

The one speaker that intrigued me most was Matthew Simmons …

The stock market’s rebound has been so fast and furious that it might make folks forget that we just experienced a nasty credit crisis and market downturn. Have sinking home values not registered with the national psyche? Surf around on Zillow.com and witness the vast amounts of wealth disappearing over the last few months as homeowners see their most significant asset crumbling on a shaky credit foundation. Of course, institutional money managers are the ones buying furiously and fueling this market rebound. It is entirely plausible that, unlike the average …

A few days ago, I wrote about the commoditization of social networks or rather the social networking feature sets that currently make Myspace and Facebook so unique and neat. Pioneers in social networking like Friendster and Myspace introduced a new data and software architecture that, at the same time clumsily and elegantly, met Internet users’ desire to interact and share content with each other. Finding old friends, connecting with new friends, sharing music and videos, playing collaborative games, and expressing oneself to virtual audiences of thousands all were groundbreaking features …

Chris Anderson, a writer at Wired Magazine and author of the influential The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, makes some good points about the insanity of Facebook’s $15 billion valuation, the inadequacy of current approaches to social networking, and the implications of an over-reliance on advertising as a business model. His arguments are useful because entrepreneurs can use them to make concrete business or strategic decisions. He doesn’t use namby pamby qualifications to hedge his bets and predictions. I do …

Venture capital follows the public equity markets. So it is no coincidence that many VCs think that funding activity will slow down in the foreseeable future. KPMG, the large accounting firm, surveyed venture capitalists and found that 69% of respondents think that we are currently in a recession. A whopping 90% believe we will see a drop in initial public offerings. All in all, this will result in less money raised in venture capital partnerships and thus less money available for startups. Startup funds will find …

Social networking has thus far been primarily about connecting with lost friends, playing simple games, and gawking at strangers. Aside from the amazing ability to reconnect with buddies from middle school, the rest of social networking mirrors normal human behavior in real life. Lots of people need an avenue for rest and relaxation. Dumb games like Pirates vs. Ninjas on Facebook replaces old time-wasters like watching TV. Who hasn’t been to the mall or the park watching people pass by? We’re all voyeurs to some degree but social networks like …

Since my current work is in new media and social networking, I am keenly interested in the turbulence facing the newspaper industry. Clients, ranging from Fortune 2000 companies to small innovative startups, come to my team at SocialOptimize to gain an understanding of the new media landscape and to develop an actionable strategy for building a meaningful presence in social networks. They ask about their traditional marketing budgets and I tell them that we will see the disappearance of many old model newspaper, radio, and television companies as they struggle …

Macro

More pain in the housing market anticipated as some homeowners find themselves “underwater” or owing more on their homes than what their homes are worth on the market. According to Mark Zandi at Economy.com (MCO), 10% of all homeowners currently face this negative equity situation. Zandi also sees home prices falling 20% as the economy worsens into a recession. Zandi could be underestimating the damage; homeowners abandon their homes and mortgages at a high rate when they enter negative territory on their equity. Foreclosures and abandoned mortgages exacerbate the problem …