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	<title>Allan Young's Incoherence &#187; oil</title>
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		<title>Investing Linkfest 5/27/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/27/investing-linkfest-52708/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/27/investing-linkfest-52708/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 07:17:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkfest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BABY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Badger Meter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[balance sheet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank of England]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BBBB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bubbles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Christopher Padilla]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[crude oil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[equities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERTS]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[ESE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Facebook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gaming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Soros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grand Theft Auto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grand Theft Auto III]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grand Theft Auto IV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Halo 3]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge Funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insider buying]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Howard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Simmons]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[mergers and acquisitions]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Mindray Medical]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[MR]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Oil Saudi Oil Shock]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[ZION]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zions Bancorporation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/28/investing-linkfest-52708/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Last week, I attended Zions Bank&#8217;s (ZION) 7th Annual International Trade and Business Conference. Most of the speakers were very interesting. John Howard, the former Prime Minister of Australia, gave a lively keynote speech and subsequently fended off with aplomb the inane question of a clearly wide-eyed political science student from the university. Christopher Padilla, the United States Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade (that&#8217;s a mouthful), spoke about the opportunities in a world featuring an emerging power in China.

The one speaker that intrigued me most was Matthew Simmons ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/investinglinkfest20080527.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="75" /></p>
<p>Last week, I attended Zions Bank&#8217;s (<a title="Zions Bancorporation" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZION" target="_blank">ZION</a>) <a title="7th Annual International Trade and Business Conference" href="http://zionsbank.com/biz/itbconference.jsp?zid=1232" target="_blank">7th Annual International Trade and Business Conference</a>. Most of the speakers were very interesting. John Howard, the former Prime Minister of Australia, gave a lively keynote speech and subsequently fended off with aplomb the inane question of a clearly wide-eyed political science student from the university. Christopher Padilla, the United States Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade (that&#8217;s a mouthful), spoke about the opportunities in a world featuring an emerging power in China.</p>
<p><a title="What's Hot What's Not 5/27/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/wsj-whwn-20080525.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/wsj-whwn-20080525.jpg" alt="What's Hot What's Not 5/27/08" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="335" height="406" align="right" /></a></p>
<p>The one speaker that intrigued me most was <a title="Matthew Simmons" href="http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches" target="_blank">Matthew Simmons</a> of <a title="Simmons &amp; Company International" href="http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/" target="_blank">Simmons &amp; Company International</a>. He spoke about <strong>&#8220;peak oil&#8221; and a world vastly transformed by the essential &#8220;drying up&#8221; of oil fields in Saudi Arabia</strong> in particular and the world in general. In a world of peak oil, we would not travel as much. Everything becomes more expensive because everything is less accessible and less transportable. New political and cultural shifts will take place that will reshape the globe as we know it. Simmon&#8217;s book, <a title="Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy" href="http://www.amazon.com/Twilight-Desert-Coming-Saudi-Economy/dp/0471790184/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1211925506&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank"><em>Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy</em></a>, which Zions was handing out free at the tables, is a sobering argument for why oil prices are so expensive right now. Of course, Simmons is an investment banker to the energy industry so everything he says must be taken with a grain of salt. For that matter, anything anyone says should be taken with a grain of salt. <strong>Always consider the incentives of the messenger.</strong></p>
<p>Nevertheless, crude oil cooperatively jumped nearly 5% last week. Over the past year, black gold has doubled in price. Traders cite the falling dollar as one major driver of escalating spot prices, but Simmons would argue that <strong>exogenous factors such as foreign exchange rates assert much less influence than long term shortages of oil.</strong></p>
<p>Two weeks ago, the markets turned in a defiantly strong performance. Equities in particular were bought up furiously by institutions like the latest Grand Theft Auto installment. Everyone loves a bull market and only the most strident bears and short sellers could lament upwardly trending indexes. But the <strong>economic indicators were still trickling out rather bleakly</strong> and thus <a title="Investing Linkfest 5/18/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/18/investing-linkfest-51808/" target="_blank">I reasoned that the rally was overdone</a>. The equity markets proceeded to give back all their gains and then some last week. Luck was a lady last week.</p>
<p><strong>Macro</strong></p>
<p>Back to oil. In the face of oil&#8217;s ascent, I dubbed our current era the <a title="Black Bubble - Investing Linkfest 5/11/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/11/investing-linkfest-51108/" target="_blank">Black Bubble</a>. I attributed a good portion of crude&#8217;s rise to the influx of speculators and momentum investors/traders looking to ride the bubble to even frothier levels. <strong>It isn&#8217;t easy to make a contrarian call</strong>, so it was with great relief to find that <a title="George Soros" href="http://www.soros.org/about/bios/a_soros" target="_blank">George Soros</a>, the billionaire hedge fund trader, philosophical political activist, and philanthropist, <a title="George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml" target="_blank">recently spoke of an oil bubble</a>. He&#8217;s certainly a lot better at extracting alpha from the market than I am.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Speculation&#8230; is increasingly affecting the price,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>The comments are significant, not only because Mr Soros is the world&#8217;s most prominent hedge fund investor but also because many experts have claimed speculation is only a minor factor affecting crude prices.</p>
<p>However, Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically.</p>
<p>Mr Soros also warned that the Bank&#8217;s inflation report represents a &#8220;Faustian pact&#8221;, obliging it to keep interest rates high to control inflation, even as the economy is starting to slump.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>He said: &#8220;The dislocations will be greater [than in the 1970s] because you also have the implications of the house price decline, which you didn&#8217;t have in the 1970s.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><a title="Latticework Linkfest 2/20/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/betweenrockhardplace.jpg" alt="Between a Rock and a Hard Place" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="112" height="112" align="right" /></a>Soros is speaking of the Bank of England here, but that is essentially the same &#8220;rock and a hard place&#8221; <a title="Latticework Linkfest 2/20/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/" target="_blank">I expected Ben Bernanke and our own Federal Reserve would have to contend with</a>. Not only is oil a key component of rising inflation, but food is the twin prong in the vice that is squeezing the consumer&#8217;s wallet.</p>
<p>The government likes to exclude oil and food from &#8220;core&#8221; inflation measurements. It is as if the pinheaded bureaucrats don&#8217;t think people buy food and oil. The last time I checked, food and oil are both very &#8220;core&#8221; elements of our budgets and lives.</p>
<p>So indeed, I believe we are in a Black Bubble. George Soros would know better how to express that outlook with an optimal trade. I&#8217;m much more of a long term investor and quite incompetent at finding the optimal trading vehicle.</p>
<p><a title="George Soros Interview" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/georgessorosinterview2008526.jpg" alt="George Soros Interview" width="550" height="291" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Micro</strong></p>
<p><a title="Grand Theft Auto IV on Track to Set New Sales Records" href="http://www.gameshout.com/newsc/grand_theft_auto_iv_on_track_to_set_new_sales_records/article1117.htm" target="_blank">Grand Theft Auto IV on Track to Set New Sales Records</a> &#8211; Take-Two Interactive Software (<a title="Take-Two Interactive Software" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ttwo" target="_blank">TTWO</a>), the publisher of GTA IV, is currently being courted by the much bigger Electronic Arts (<a title="Electronic Arts" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=erts" target="_blank">ERTS</a>). According to some reports, GTA IV will pass Microsoft&#8217;s (<a title="Microsoft" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) Halo 3 as the best selling console video game of all time. Seems to me there is no GTA fatigue despite many different installments since the &#8220;game-changing&#8221; GTA III. Also seems to me that TTWO ought to <a title="Yang Calls and Raises Ballmer" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/07/yang-calls-and-raises-ballmer/" target="_blank">hold out like Yahoo!</a> (<a title="Yahoo!" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yhoo" target="_blank">YHOO</a>) for a higher price.</p>
<p><a title="Travel Appears To Be Next Up For Google" href="http://searchengineland.com/080526-073454.php" target="_blank">Travel Appears To Be Next Up For Google</a> &#8211; Travelzoo (<a title="Travelzoo" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TZOO" target="_blank">TZOO</a>) has been a fashionable pick by some value investors. What&#8217;s not to like? The company essentially traffics in information, one of the most scalable and profitable business models ever invented by man. The company has healthy margins and return on equity (ROE), an unencumbered balance sheet, and a flock of short sellers ready to be squeezed. Heavy insider buying adds a cherry on top. But something wicked this way comes; Google (<a title="Google" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=goog" target="_blank">GOOG</a>) is expected to extend its tentacles into the online travel information industry.</p>
<p><a title="Mindray Medical: Strong Report and Fast Growth" href="http://www.sinolinx.com/frame/?url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/78358-mindray-medical-strong-report-and-fast-growth?source=feed" target="_blank">Mindray Medical: Strong Report and Fast Growth</a> &#8211; Mindray Medical (<a title="Mindray Medical" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mr" target="_blank">MR</a>), one of the leading medical device companies in China continues to hum along with breathtaking growth. More than half of the company&#8217;s revenues come from outside of the Middle Kingdom, but the recent humanitarian disasters brought on by earthquakes and aftershocks may send demand skyrocketing in the homeland.</p>
<p><a title="A Wrench In The Machine?" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080523/industry.html?.v=1" target="_blank">A Wrench In The Machine?</a> &#8211; <strong>Conventional wisdom says the United States is losing its manufacturing sector.</strong> Mostly true. Badger Meter (<a title="Badger Meter" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bmi" target="_blank">BMI</a>) is one of the few companies thriving as a manufacturer of specialized industrial equipment. BMI makes water, oil, and fluid meters. ESCO Technologies (<a title="ESCO Technologies" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ese" target="_blank">ESE</a>) competes directly against Badger Meter in pushing the <a title="Investing Linkfest 5/18/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/18/investing-linkfest-51808/" target="_blank">next generation of networked utility meters</a> that will eliminate the need for the local utility company to send a technician out to read your water meter. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in BMI in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
<p><a title="Black board Application on Facebook" href="http://facebookblogged.com/2008/05/23/black-board-application-on-facebook/" target="_blank">Blackboard Application on Facebook</a> &#8211; Having operated Web startups involved in the social networking space for over 3 years, most news items involving Facebook or Myspace (<a title="News Corporation" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nws-a" target="_blank">NWS-A</a>) usually register a blah on the blah-bam scale. The new Facebook application by Blackboard (<a title="Blackboard" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bbbb" target="_blank">BBBB</a>) is a bam. This web application will not change Blackboard&#8217;s fortunes much, but the idea that social networks, unlike the banal uses self-proclaimed social networking gurus foist on unsuspecting clients, can actually be used to facilitate something robust sends chills up and down my spine. <strong>The megatrend of online education cries for an intelligent implementation of an educational social network.</strong></p>
<p><a title="Natus Medical prices public offering of 4M shares" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080523/natus_medical_public_offering.html?.v=1" target="_blank">Natus Medical prices public offering of 4M shares</a> &#8211; <a title="Investing Linkfest 5/18/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/18/investing-linkfest-51808/" target="_blank">Shareholders reacted allergically</a> to Natus Medical&#8217;s (<a title="Natus Medical" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=baby" target="_blank">BABY</a>) registration of secondary offering shares. Turns out demand for the secondary offering was stronger than expected and the company&#8217;s stock rebounded. Natus Medical&#8217;s recent acquisitions make sense. <strong>Company management has shown an ability to allocate capital intelligently.</strong> The capital raised through the secondary offering will allow the company to bolster its competitive position as weaker competitors exit the industry by selling. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in BABY in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
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		<title>Investing Linkfest 5/11/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/11/investing-linkfest-51108/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/11/investing-linkfest-51108/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 05:07:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/11/investing-linkfest-51108/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
The market takes a breather after several weeks of blistering recovery from last winter&#8217;s doldrums. Commodities all around saw amazing advances. Crude oil rose 8.3% last week and has more than doubled over the last year. I remember taking my first car, a Honda (HMC) Civic, out for the first time and pumping gas for about $1.18 per gallon. This was also in the notoriously gas-expensive San Francisco Bay Area. Base commodities and gold continue to follow oil&#8217;s lead in going the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. Will the ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/investinglinkfest20080511.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="75" /></p>
<p>The market takes a breather after several weeks of blistering recovery from last winter&#8217;s doldrums. Commodities all around saw amazing advances. Crude oil rose 8.3% last week and has more than doubled over the last year. I remember taking my first car, a Honda (<a title="Honda Motor Company" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HMC" target="_blank">HMC</a>) Civic, out for the first time and pumping gas for about $1.18 per gallon. This was also in the notoriously gas-expensive San Francisco Bay Area. Base commodities and gold continue to follow oil&#8217;s lead in going the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. <strong>Will the likely Democratic presidency mean a material difference to the nation&#8217;s budget policies and thus the value of our currency?</strong></p>
<p><a title="What's Hot What's Not 5/11/08" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121037344393281831.html" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/wsj-whwn-20080511.jpg" alt="What's Hot What's Not 5/11/08" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="300" height="364" align="right" /></a>The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite took a 1.3% dive last week. Does this in any way validate my <a title="Investing Linkfest 5/4/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/04/investing-linkfest-5408/" target="_blank">technology industry bifurcation thesis</a>? Absolutely not. Relative to the rest of the equity markets, the Nasdaq Composite performed decently. The S&amp;P 500 stock index saw a 1.8% decline while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (a poorly constructed index) lost 2.4% over the last week. More painfully for investors anticipating a real estate recovery, REIT stocks lost 3.2% collectively. The Nasdaq Composite (actually a very well constructed index) performed better than other equity indexes. In essence, technology stocks as a whole, large blue chips and second tier small caps, did better than the old industrial giants found in the DJIA and the big caps in the S&amp;P 500 by a significant margin.</p>
<p>We have seen very little evidence of second-tier technology companies suffering from the recent slowdown in economic activity. This is particularly interesting because one of the historic catalysts for technology capital investment by enterprises, the Microsoft (<a title="Microsoft" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) operating system upgrade cycle, is not a large factor in this market. <strong>The Vista operating system has not caught fire like previous Microsoft operating system launches</strong>. The Windows XP operating system was a blockbuster and so were earlier versions of Windows. Prior upgrading cycles resulted in renewed investment in computer equipment, computer peripherals, and secondary software products.</p>
<p><strong>Macro</strong></p>
<p>I&#8217;ve alluded to my concern about <a title="Latticework Linkfest 2/20/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/" target="_blank">Ben Bernanke&#8217;s ability to display great staying power</a> in his effort to jump start the economy by lowering interest rates. With oil and commodity prices barreling higher every week, the <strong>specter of inflation looms menacingly and hampers the Federal Reserve&#8217;s ability to continue lowering rates</strong>. The macro themes of globalization and emerging giants like China and India have been the drivers of skyrocketing prices in oil and food commodities.</p>
<p>However, I see <strong>imbalances developing between asset prices and the underlying supply and demand curves</strong>. Crude oil&#8217;s meteoric rise to record prices never before seen in history is rooted primarily in fundamental, systemic growth in demand. But the recent, almost parabolic rise in oil prices suggests that speculators and trend followers are piling in, hoping for continued profits flowing. <strong>Speculators and trend followers, by definition, introduce inefficiencies and imbalances to asset prices</strong>. China&#8217;s trade surplus is growing at a decelerating pace. Our diminished dollar makes our goods and services much more attractive to foreign consumers. It also makes foreign goods and services much more expensive for Americans to buy. The trade frictions caused by our historically cheap dollar might just slow down emerging markets growth and thus the demand for oil. Oil is the hot investment right now, but it could be flammable for recent riders of the bandwagon. We might be caught in what I call the &#8220;<strong>Black Bubble</strong>.&#8221;</p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/cartoonoilblackgold.jpg" alt="Cartoon - Oil Black Gold" width="369" height="346" /></p>
<p><strong>Micro</strong></p>
<p><a title="Priceline surges on strong earnings, outlook" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/priceline-surges-following-strong-earnings/story.aspx?guid=%7B70EAA7C2%2D6BAB%2D401C%2DA10B%2D7B0EE7EBD7C0%7D&amp;siteid=yhoof" target="_blank">Priceline surges on strong earnings, outlook</a> &#8211; Priceline.com (<a title="Priceline.com" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pcln" target="_blank">PCLN</a>) hit an eight-year high as both its domestic and international businesses enjoy huge demand. The company&#8217;s business model, which allows travelers to name their own prices or bids, has been attracting legions of bargain-hunting travelers. How long will this last? Priceline.com is one of the few companies thriving in the travel industry. The airlines, other online travel retailers or portals, and car rental companies have mostly seen their stocks decline over the last year.</p>
<p><a title="Constant Contact's first quarter revenue soars" href="http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/05/05/daily33.html?ana=yfcpc" target="_blank">Constant Contact&#8217;s first quarter revenue soars</a> &#8211; Email marketing is so Web 1.0, isn&#8217;t it? Older Internet users still rely heavily on email. Early adopters and younger users of the Internet are less reliant on email. Instead, they gravitate to other services such as instant messaging, text messaging, and social networking. <a title="The Twitter Influence Ratio" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/24/the-twitter-influence-ratio/" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, is a very interesting next generation platform that further reduces the need for email communication. <strong>All these usage patterns do not bode well for Constant Contact</strong> (<a title="Constant Contact" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CTCT" target="_blank">CTCT</a>), a provider of software for email marketing campaigns.</p>
<p><a title="The CAPS Screen: 10 Small Caps on Fire" href="http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2008/05/05/the-caps-screen-10-small-caps-on-fire.aspx" target="_blank">The CAPS Screen: 10 Small Caps on Fire</a> &#8211; The Motley Fool includes Interactive Intelligence (<a title="Interactive Intelligence" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=inin" target="_blank">ININ</a>) in one of their interesting screening exercises. Interactive Intelligence makes software that manages call center or contact center operations. Screens are a good way to generate investment ideas, but a formulaic investment program based on screened variables does not automatically lead to good investments. Many investors employ screens to find stocks selling cheaply. Sometimes, companies are cheap because they deserve to be cheap as the economic merits of their businesses deteriorate.<strong> An investment decision made solely by screening and without knowledge of the competitive standing of the company in question is akin to marrying a girl solely because she comes from a good family</strong>. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in ININ in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
<p><a title="National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript" href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/76120-national-oilwell-varco-inc-q1-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo" target="_blank">National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript</a> &#8211; I mentioned that oil appears to have become a speculative market surrounded by a thin film of soapy substance. Bubbles don&#8217;t fizzle out, they usually burst or pop with ferocious force. National Oilwell Varco (<a title="National Oilwell Varco" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nov" target="_blank">NOV</a>) provides equipment and supplies to the oil and gas industries and has been a big beneficiary of the rising price of crude. The price of oil may continue its amazing ascent or it may flush out the speculative latecomers, but <strong>the imperative to keep searching and producing oil will hardly diminish</strong>.</p>
<p><span class="t"><a title="James River Coal 1Q loss widens on higher costs, stoppage" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080506/earns_james_river_coal.html?.v=1" target="_blank">James River Coal 1Q loss widens on higher costs, stoppage</a> &#8211; </span><strong>Alternatives to oil become more attractive as black gold becomes more expensive</strong>. Thus, oil shale, ethanol, coal, solar power, and biofuels become serious considerations. I have been investing with this thesis for over a year. James River Coal (<a title="James River Coal" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jrcc" target="_blank">JRCC</a>), one of the worst managed coal companies around, has seen its stock move in lockstep with the rising price of oil. So although it continues to run into management and operating gaffes, the stock market has rewarded it and its highly leveraged balance sheet with new price highs. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in JRCC in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
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		<title>Investing Linkfest 4/27/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/27/investing-linkfest-42708/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/27/investing-linkfest-42708/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Apr 2008 05:38:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkfest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amazon.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American consumer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asian countries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[automobile dashboards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Big Blue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[biofuels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blackberry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[call centers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cell phones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cisco Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commoditization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contact centers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corporate budgets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crises]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CROCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CROX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSCO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dashboards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decker Outdoor Corporation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DJIA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings reports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronic equipment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fashion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fashion fads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gamers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government regulations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haiti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hardware]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heelys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hewlett-Packard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HLYS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HPQ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ININ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interaction EasyScripter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interactive Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Business Machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iPhone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iPod]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Yang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linksys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[massive multiplayer online games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MMOGs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[political instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[power bricks]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regulations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research in Motion]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOHU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sohu.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Startups]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[SYNA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Synaptics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thesis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TianLong Babu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[touchscreen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[touchscreen technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UGG boots]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unintended consequences]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Nations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Universal Serial Bus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wheat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless networking]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[YHOO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/27/investing-linkfest-42708/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
A couple weeks ago, I wrote about my pessimism regarding the technology sector. The market had seemed to interpret the surprisingly good results reported by Big Blue (IBM), Google (GOOG), and even Yahoo! (YHOO) as reasons for unleashing optimism and a bargain hunting shopping spree for stocks of publicly traded technology companies. Maybe the recessionary environment and the woes faced by banks and the American consumer would not negatively impact corporate budgets for technology. My skepticism rests on the ability of secondary technology companies to weather the economic slowdown. In ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/investinglinkfest20080427.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="75" /></p>
<p>A couple weeks ago, I wrote about <a title="Investing Linkfest 4/17/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/17/investing-linkfest-41708/" target="_blank">my pessimism regarding the technology sector</a>. The market had seemed to interpret the surprisingly good results reported by Big Blue (<a title="International Business Machines" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ibm" target="_blank">IBM</a>), Google (<a title="Google" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=goog" target="_blank">GOOG</a>), and even Yahoo! (<a title="Yahoo!" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yhoo" target="_blank">YHOO</a>) as reasons for unleashing optimism and a bargain hunting shopping spree for stocks of publicly traded technology companies. Maybe the recessionary environment and the woes faced by banks and the American consumer would not negatively impact corporate budgets for technology. My skepticism rests on the ability of secondary technology companies to weather the economic slowdown. In other words, I think there is going to be a <strong>bifurcation of the technology sector</strong>, with blue chips performing in line with expectations and second tier players getting hit hard by purchasing slowdowns.</p>
<p><a title="What Hot What's Not 20080426" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120916521412246171.html" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/wsj-whwn-20080426.jpg" alt="What's Hot What's Not 4/26/08" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="300" height="364" align="right" /></a>How has my skepticism aligned with reality? As usual, <strong>I&#8217;m wrong more often than I&#8217;m right</strong>. Over the past week, Apple (<a title="Apple" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl" target="_blank">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com (<a title="Amazon.com" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amzn" target="_blank">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft (<a title="Microsoft" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) all reported earnings greater than expectations. These blue chips however warned of weaker results in the foreseeable future. For the week, Apple stock rose 5%, Amazon ticked up 1%, Microsoft ticked down 1%, and Yahoo! fell a whopping 6%. Yahoo&#8217;s weak showing had a lot to do with Microsoft <a title="Steve Ballmer Puts on Poker Face" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/05/steve-ballmer-puts-on-poker-face/" target="_blank">reiterating its reluctance to increase its bid</a> for <a title="Yang Calls and Raises Ballmer" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/07/yang-calls-and-raises-ballmer/" target="_blank">Jerry Yang &amp; Company</a>. These mixed results mask a surprisingly strong showing by the Nasdaq Composite Index which rose 0.8% for the week. This implies that a lot of the secondary technology issues performed better than other sectors of the economy. Industrials in the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose only 0.3% and the blue chips in the S&amp;P 500 did slightly better with a 0.5% rise. We&#8217;ll get an even better reading on the technology sector as bellwethers like Blackberry maker Research In Motion (<a title="Research In Motion" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=rimm" target="_blank">RIMM</a>), Cisco Systems (<a title="Cisco Systems" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=csco" target="_blank">CSCO</a>), Hewlett-Packard (<a title="Hewlett-Packard" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hpq" target="_blank">HPQ</a>), and Dell (<a title="Dell" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dell" target="_blank">DELL</a>) report their earnings in the upcoming weeks. In the meantime, I&#8217;ll be looking for a lot of smaller technology companies to run into a brick wall.</p>
<p><strong>Macro</strong></p>
<p>The media just started latching onto the <strong>rising cost of food story</strong>. All throughout Ben Bernanke&#8217;s easing of credit and interest rates, which in the short run looks like a success, I worried about his <a title="Investing linkfest 2/20/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/" target="_blank">staying power because of inflation</a>. The<img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/economistcoverfoodcrisis.jpg" alt="Economist Cover - Food Crisis" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="219" height="288" align="right" /> Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place because of the conflicting forces of inflation and the slowing economy. Everyone knew about oil&#8217;s incessant march to record prices, but few worried about food prices. Recently, The Economist ran a cover story on the food crisis. <strong>Much of the blame rests with increased planting of corn for biofuels instead of wheat for food. The unintended consequences of government initiatives and regulations bolstering or subsidizing the use of ethanol are now materializing in record food prices.</strong> The <a title="UN chief warns of food price crisis" href="http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUWEFoVgFIUzY7iXFAfLCST_2skg" target="_blank">head of the United Nations warned</a> that the dearness of food could cause political and social instability. Asian countries are in a mini-panic because of the skyrocketing price of rice, the staple input of Asia. <a title="Food crisis multidimensional, analysts say" href="http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2008/04/27/food_crisis_multidimensional_analysts_say/6493/" target="_blank">Riots have erupted in Egypt</a> and even the <a title="Haiti names new PM amid food crisis" href="http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iZyRG8jYVUtRTJbLQXiC5T5PaD4g" target="_blank">prime minister of Haiti was forced to resign</a> over food shortages. Crises bring opportunities, so rumors of <a title="Investing Linkfest 4/17/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/17/investing-linkfest-41708/" target="_blank">American food conglomerates craving foreign food companies</a> abound as executives weigh their next move in response to the food crisis. <strong>Will we want to drive more or eat more?</strong> That is a very basic question.</p>
<p><strong>Micro</strong></p>
<p><a title="Interactive Intelligence to Announce First Quarter Operating Results" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080410/20080410006086.html?.v=1" target="_blank">Interactive Intelligence to Announce First Quarter Operating Results</a> &#8211; Interactive Intelligence (<a title="Interactive Intelligence" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=inin" target="_blank">ININ</a>) provides software applications used by contact centers or call centers. ININ has some award-winning products. One of the most interesting to me is their Interaction EasyScripter, which is software that allows for management of &#8220;scripts&#8221; for call center agents. Companies that rely on call center agents to sell products or perform customer service should find EasyScripter very useful. I&#8217;m considering using EasyScripter or something similar in the sales efforts of the startup I&#8217;m involved in. The company reports earnings after market close on Monday and analysts expect 8 cents of earnings per share for Q1 this year. <strong>ININ is one of the second tier technology companies that will test my thesis</strong>, that blue chip technology companies will do fine through the economic downturn while the smaller technology companies suffer from budget cuts. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in ININ in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
<p><a title="Decker surges on higher outlook, earns" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080425/deckers_outdoor_out_of_the_gate.html?.v=1" target="_blank">Decker surges on higher outlook</a> &#8211; We can&#8217;t always focus just on technology and food. Let&#8217;s take a look at fashion for a bit, albeit low fashion. Decker Outdoor Corporation (<a title="Decker Outdoor Corporation" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=deck" target="_blank">DECK</a>), the maker of those annoying UGG boots took short sellers on a 21.55% ride after reporting earnings growth of 18% for Q1 2008. DECK has other product lines, but the primary driver of growth is the UGG boots line. <strong>Always be skeptical about fashion fads</strong>. Take a look at the stock charts of CROCS (<a title="CROCS" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CROX" target="_blank">CROX</a>) and Heelys (<a title="Heelys" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hlys" target="_blank">HLYS</a>) for an illustrative warning.</p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/croxchart20080427.jpg" alt="Crox Chart 20080427" width="550" height="318" /></p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/hlyschart20080427.jpg" alt="HLYS Chart 20080427" width="550" height="318" /></p>
<p><a title="Focused Strategy Helps Chipmaker Rise Above Sector's Slump" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080425/newamer.html?.v=1" target="_blank"><span class="t">Focused Strategy Helps Chipmaker Rise Above Sector&#8217;s Slump</span></a> &#8211; Back to technology, I just had the power brick on my Hewlett-Packard Pavilion laptop fail on me. Replacement power bricks are unbelievably expensive. <strong>Why can&#8217;t laptop manufacturers standardize on power bricks</strong> and power cords so we can all buy a one-model-fits-all commoditized power unit? The Universal Serial Bus (USB) port has worked so well for consumers. Power Integrations (<a title="Power Integrations" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=powi" target="_blank">POWI</a>) makes a tidy business supplying the chips that control power bricks.</p>
<p><a title="Citi upgrades Sohu.com" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080425/sohucom_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1" target="_blank"><span class="t">Citi upgrades Sohu.com</span></a> &#8211; I pay great attention to the China tech sector and, recently, the <a title=" Chinese surfers overtake the US - on the web" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/25/wchina325.xml" target="_blank">Chinese passed the United States for the most Internet users</a>. Sohu.com (<a title="Sohu.com" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sohu" target="_blank">SOHU</a>) is China&#8217;s version of Yahoo!, an Internet portal company. Sohu.com, unlike Yahoo!, is growing by leaps and bounds. Also unlike Yahoo!, Sohu.com has figured out online gaming. Going forward, its online game, TianLong Babu, will be a strong contributor to the bottom line. <strong>If you think World of Warcraft and online gaming has had a big impact on the American gamer, just keep your eye on what massive multiplayer online games (MMOGs) will do in China and the rest of Asia.</strong></p>
<p><a title="Netgear shares tumble after profit drops on US, UK woes" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080425/earns_netgear.html?.v=1" target="_blank"><span class="t">Netgear shares tumble after profit drops on US, UK woes</span></a> &#8211; I love Netgear (<a title="Netgear" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ntgr" target="_blank">NTGR</a>) products. Netgear powers my home network. However, it seems that Cisco System&#8217;s Linksys division is taking market share by sparking an industry-wide price war. Wireless networking, once the next big thing, has become a commodity. Aside from a few gifted companies like Apple and Cisco, <strong>hardware makers often fall prey to the commoditization trap</strong>. It happens sooner rather than later. Netgear reported Q1 earnings dropped 20% and promptly saw its stock take a 16.74% dive.</p>
<p><a title="Shares of Synaptics drop after fiscal 3Q profit slides" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080425/earns_synaptics.html?.v=1" target="_blank"><span class="t">Shares of Synaptics drop after fiscal 3Q profit slides</span></a> &#8211; Synaptics (<a title="Synaptics" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=syna" target="_blank">SYNA</a>) specializes in touchscreen technology. It used to do a lot of business with Apple supplying technology for iPod user interfaces. The long term growth of electronic equipment with touch interfaces like the iPod, iPhone, and the flood of iPhone competitors soon to come bodes well for this company. Cell phones and smart phones will have increasingly intelligent touch interfaces. Even automobile dashboards will become flattened digital touch interfaces rather than today&#8217;s analog dials and switches.</p>
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		<title>Investing Linkfest 4/17/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/17/investing-linkfest-41708/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/17/investing-linkfest-41708/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2008 04:46:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkfest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amphenol]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[APH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[balance sheet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[basic metals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bespoke Investment Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Big Blue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CCK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crown Holdings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[da Vinci robotic surgical system]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extrapolation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[full disclosure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Electric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Business Machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intuitive Surgical]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ISRG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market share]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mergers and acquisitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[net income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[optimism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[population growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stagnation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Watson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WBD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wimm Bill Dann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[YouTubem]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Optimism abounds with the market resolutely shaking off bad news while focusing myopically on the good, or relatively good, news. The cheerleaders on CNBC (GE) can scarcely be heard uttering the dreadful words of inflation, recession, stagnation, credit crisis, and foreclosures. Happily, they talk about earnings beats. Surprisingly, there are a number of really substantial earnings beats that seem to justify the current sanguine tone of the market.
A lot of the beats thus far have come from blue chip companies that dominate their industries and sectors. Logically, this makes sense. ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/investinglinkfest20080417.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="61" /></p>
<p>Optimism abounds with the market resolutely shaking off bad news while focusing myopically on the good, or relatively good, news. The cheerleaders on CNBC (<a title="General Electric" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>) can scarcely be heard uttering the dreadful words of <em>inflation, recession, stagnation, credit crisis, and foreclosures</em>. Happily, they talk about earnings beats. Surprisingly, there are a number of really substantial earnings beats that seem to justify the current sanguine tone of the market.</p>
<p>A lot of the beats thus far have come from blue chip companies that dominate their industries and sectors. Logically, this makes sense. If we are in a recessionary environment, only our very best companies will be able to capture market share. Secondary companies or second tier competitors will lose market share in tough environments. I suspect that the cash coffers of the Fortune 500 will soon start to be deployed, resulting in a nice pickup in mergers and acquisitions activity and the buying of market share. Beware the rash of earnings reports coming from the middling middle of our corporate roll call.</p>
<p>Now, on with the ceremony:</p>
<p><a title="Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript" href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/72826-intuitive-surgical-inc-q1-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo" target="_blank">Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript</a> &#8211; The maker of the revolutionary da Vinci robotic surgical system, this has been a growth stock for the future and the recent past, but apparently not for the present. After hours, Intuitive Surgical (<a title="Intuitive Surgical" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=isrg" target="_blank">ISRG</a>) reported EPS growth of 81% and sales growth of 65%. These numbers actually beat estimates, something this company has become habitually good at doing. However, the beat was not as large as previous beats and the stock dove 8.6% in after hours trading. Come again? Kudos to the boys at Bespoke Investment Group for calling the potential for a &#8220;<a title="Intuitive Surgical: The Wonder Stock by the Bespoke Investment Group" href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/72574-intuitive-surgical-the-wonder-stock" target="_blank">bad beat</a>.&#8221; <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in ISRG in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
<p><a title="IBM shares rise to highest price in 6 years after earnings" href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/04/17/ap4904986.html" target="_blank">IBM shares rise to highest price in 6 years after earnings</a> &#8211; Big Blue (<a title="International Business Machines" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ibm" target="_blank">IBM</a>) is one of the primary drivers of this recent rally. While everyone was gloomily expecting credit crisis-sickened earnings, the House That Watson Built comes out with an outstanding report. Net income rose a whopping 26% while revenue grew 11% during the first quarter. I have to quibble here with the unalloyed euphoric reaction. The ability to cut or manage costs is exactly what is needed in a recessionary environment and while revenue grew healthily, this is not a case of sales growth keeping in line with profit growth. Everyone else is taking this bellwether stock as indicating unexpected strength in the technology sector. Extrapolation is a dangerous game to play. IBM&#8217;s domestic business represents only 35% of total revenues. Unless your small-cap technology stock has a global presence, you may be disappointed yet.</p>
<p><a title="Russia's White Gold" href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/24013641/?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&amp;par=yahoo" target="_blank">Russia&#8217;s White Gold</a> &#8211; Cramer is an entertaining fellow. He&#8217;s onto the story of how American food conglomerates are beginning to crave Russian food makers. Gobble, gobble, gobble, buying on acquisition speculation is for turkeys. Wimm Bill Dann (<a title="Wimm Bill Dann" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wbd" target="_blank">WBD</a>) is one such Russian food maker and has benefited from the worldwide inflation of food prices. I&#8217;ve mentioned before that <a title="Latticework Linkfest - 2/20/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/" target="_blank">food inflation will make us all a little hungrier and Ben Bernanke&#8217;s job a little harder</a>.</p>
<p><a title="Crown Holdings sets high following jump in 1Q profit" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080417/crown_holdings_mover.html?.v=2" target="_blank">Crown Holdings sets high following jump in 1Q profit</a> &#8211; Population growth in emerging countries is one of the main drivers of the growing demand for food. Someone&#8217;s got to package all that food to meet exploding demand from a burgeoning global marketplace. Crown Holdings (<a title="Crown Holdings   " href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cck" target="_blank">CCK</a>) has been a big beneficiary of the demand for food and thus the derivative demand for packaging for food. Beware the toxic balance sheet. Beware even more the equally strong inflation in raw materials. Basic metals for beverage cans have seen strong price advances. Oil&#8217;s record-setting price march will surely increase the cost of plastic packaging.</p>
<p><a title="Amphenol raises 2008 profit, sales outlook above estimates" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080417/amphenol_outlook.html?.v=1" target="_blank">Amphenol raises 2008 profit, sales outlook above estimates</a> &#8211; My skepticism of IBM and the rest of the technology sector is made to look silly as smaller player in technology also beats comfortably. Amphenol (<a title="Amphenol" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aph" target="_blank">APH</a>), a maker of fiber optic cables and connectors reported that sales rose 18% while income saw a 25% jump. Demand for bandwidth remains strong as countless millions waste precious minutes watching stupid videos on YouTube for free. Someone has to produce the digital pipes that make our devolved entertainment needs possible. Oh, did I mention that Google (<a title="Google" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=goog" target="_blank">GOOG</a>) also pleased Wall Street with a <a title="Google sagging stock soars after strong 1Q showing" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080418/earns_google.html?.v=4" target="_blank">rosy earnings report</a>? I&#8217;m looking stupider and stupider by the minute.</p>
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		<title>Latticework Linkfest 2/20/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/20/latticework-linkfest-22008/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2008 02:59:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkfest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AdFrames]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Best Buy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cal-Maine Foods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CALM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cloud computing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DNA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Facebook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GameStop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GeneTree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GME]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KFN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KKR Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LiveScience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nintendo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nouriel Roubini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NTDOY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NTRI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NutriSystem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Private Equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sanger Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharper Image]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SHRP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[social networking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Navy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venture Capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VentureBeat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VideoEgg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wal-Mart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WiiWare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WMT]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Macro

Between a rock and a hard place &#8211; that&#8217;s the scenario Ben Bernanke finds himself in as the economy decelerates drastically while inflation rises more than anticipated.


For the masochists, Nouriel Roubini proposes a perfect storm to demolish the financial markets. Of course, the probability of financial armageddon is extremely low, but you never know. Even if a handful of his scenarios come to fruition, the pain will be significant.


Do KKR Financial&#8217;s (KFN) woes signal further trouble for the private equity industry? During the height of the private equity boom, analysts ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/roubinifinancialmeltdown.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-51" title="Financial Meltdown" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/roubinifinancialmeltdown.jpg" alt="" width="530" height="282" /></a></strong></p>
<p><strong>Macro</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Between a rock and a hard place &#8211; that&#8217;s the scenario Ben Bernanke finds himself in as the economy decelerates drastically while <a title="Inflation rising" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/02/20/economists-little-risk-of-accelerating-inflation/" target="_blank">inflation rises more than anticipated</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>For the masochists, <a title="Roubini's perfect storm" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d19518c-df0d-11dc-91d4-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1" target="_blank">Nouriel Roubini proposes a perfect storm</a> to demolish the financial markets. Of course, the probability of financial armageddon is extremely low, but you never know. Even if a handful of his scenarios come to fruition, the pain will be significant.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Do KKR Financial&#8217;s (<a title="KKR Financial" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=kfn" target="_blank">KFN</a>) <a title="KKR Financial delays debt repayments" href="http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080220/REG/816846381/1005/rss04&amp;rssfeed=rss04" target="_blank">woes signal further trouble for the private equity industry</a>? During the height of the private equity boom, analysts predicted that 2007 and 2008 would be great years for the equity markets as leveraged buyout funds were anticipated to take scores of companies private. In addition to the premiums spent to pay off public shareholders, the resultant shortage of publicly traded shares was supposed to increase the value of the remaining pool of public companies. This credit crunch is going to hamper funds&#8217; ability to lever up and buy out public firms; we&#8217;re already seeing a slowdown in private equity. Never mind <a title="KKR and PE industry step up lobbying efforts" href="http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/895477/26100374" target="_blank">KKR&#8217;s efforts to lobby against aggressive efforts by Congress to raise taxes on the industry</a>?</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a title="Oil breaks $101" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080220/oil_prices.html" target="_blank">Oil sets another record today and breaks $101</a>. This is half of the two-pronged vice that will be giving Bernanke &amp; Co. at the Federal Reserve fits as they try to navigate between this economic downturn with rate cuts while the threat of inflation remains. The other half is rising food prices spurred by demand from a growing world population.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Micro</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Sharper Image (<a title="Sharper Image" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SHRP" target="_blank">SHRP</a>) files for bankruptcy. As a little boy, I used to love borrowing my father&#8217;s Sharper Image catalogs and fantasizing about trading my toy soldiers for the overpriced remote controlled cars and suits of armor. The Ionic Breeze, arguably their most successful and popular product, is also the nail in the coffin after <a title="Consumer Reports and Sharper Image" href="http://consumerist.com/358616/sharper-image-files-chapter-11-will-close-half-of-their-stores" target="_blank">Consumer Reports raised doubts about the product&#8217;s efficacy</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>One prong of the inflation vice is the rising price of food. Cal-Maine Foods (<a title="Cal-Main Foods" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=calm" target="_blank">CALM</a>) has been a big beneficiary of that price strength. MagicDiligence has a <a title="Omelette or Bad Egg?" href="http://www.magicdiligence.com/MagicDiligence.com/Articles/Entries/2008/2/14_Cal-Maine_Foods%3A_Omelette_or_Bad_Egg.html" target="_blank">nice short piece about why Cal-Maine may be riskier</a> than the rosy superficial metrics suggest. Can&#8217;t stop making omelettes.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Continuing on with this theme on food inflation, NutriSystem (<a title="NutriSystem" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ntri" target="_blank">NTRI</a>), the company that delivers ready-to-eat meals that help consumers lose weight <a title="NutriSystem plunges on lower guidance" href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/02/08/ap4634846.html" target="_blank">guided earnings lower and saw its stock plunge</a>. Interesting that it has not been able to pass on higher costs to consumers without seeing a corresponding loss in &#8220;subscribers.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Technology</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Social networking and, to a lesser degree, cloud computing are the hot topics in web business models right now. <a title="Blist" href="http://www.blist.com/" target="_blank">Blist</a>, a startup that <a title="Blist funded with $6.5 million" href="http://bub.blicio.us/?p=717" target="_blank">just raised $6.5 million</a> is attempting to combine both by providing a cloud database web application with a social networking twist for sharing that data. The dominant social networks revolve around sharing pictures, music, and videos. It&#8217;ll be interesting to see what kind of data schemes will arise out of the social interactions that take place. It&#8217;ll be interesting just to see if people will gravitate towards such a tool. My intuition tells me this will be relegated to the geeks amongst us.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Online video advertising network <a title="VideoEgg" href="http://www.videoegg.com/" target="_blank">VideoEgg</a> unveiled the <a title="VideoEgg AdFrames program" href="http://mashable.com/2008/02/19/videoegg-adframes/" target="_blank">new AdFrames program</a>. Advertisers are going to gravitate towards this model where they only pay if consumers interact with the video ads and perform a predefined action. Unlike the traditional CPM model which is harder to measure from an ROI perspective, the CPA (cost per action) model lends itself to detailed analytics and ROI measures.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Open platforms have been all the rage in the social networking space since <a title="Facebook" href="http://facebook.com" target="_blank">Facebook</a> exposed its APIs to the developer community. Now we see video game platforms following suit as Nintendo (<a title="Nintendo" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ntdoy.pk" target="_blank">NTDOY</a>) <a title="Nintendo WiiWare" href="http://venturebeat.com/2008/02/20/nintendos-wiiware-platform-to-let-independent-developers-get-their-game-on/" target="_blank">announced WiiWare</a>, essentially opening the Wii gaming console to allow independent game developers to create and distribute games to the Wii community. Many of the most successful Facebook apps are simple, fun games. This is an outstanding move by Nintendo to get all that gaming creativity into their camp.
<ul>
<li><strong>[update]:</strong> <a title="VentureBeat report" href="http://venturebeat.com/2008/02/20/nintendos-wiiware-platform-to-let-independent-developers-get-their-game-on/" target="_blank">VentureBeat is reporting</a> that Microsoft (<a title="Microsoft" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) just announced that it too will create a platform for independent game developers to make and distribute games for the Xbox. The Xbox Live system is currently the best online gaming system amongst the top three gaming platforms. It looks like we will indeed have a future in which we will never have to go to GameStop (<a title="GameStop" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gme" target="_blank">GME</a>), Best Buy (<a title="Best Buy" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bby" target="_blank">BBY</a>), or Wal-mart (<a title="Wal-mart" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wmt" target="_blank">WMT</a>) to buy games, they&#8217;ll be sent over the Internet into our gaming consoles or computers.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Science</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Recently, I&#8217;ve had the opportunity to meet with the executive team at <a title="GeneTree" href="http://www.genetree.com" target="_blank">GeneTree</a>, a social network based on DNA. The concept is very exciting to me for the possibility of being able to add a deeper level of understanding to a family tree, finding out about ancestors&#8217; migratory patterns, and even the potential to be warned of diseases I am particularly susceptible to. While preparing for our meetings, I had to bone up on my college biology and chemistry. I stumbled upon a <a title="Sanger Institute facts about human genome" href="http://www.sanger.ac.uk/HGP/draft2000/facts.shtml" target="_blank">Sanger Institute web page</a> today that puts a mind-numbing spin on DNA.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Exciting developments in energy science emerging as <a title="Greenhouse gases into fuel" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/science/19carb.html?_r=2&amp;ex=1361077200&amp;en=d23ec5df5017adbc&amp;ei=5088&amp;partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss&amp;oref=slogin&amp;oref=slogin" target="_blank">two scientists propose turning greenhouse gases emitted by cars into jet fuel</a>. Please bring it on! We couldn&#8217;t have more options for energy at a better time.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Have you wondered how the U.S. Navy is going to shoot down the spy satellite due to reenter our planet soon? Obviously a lot of math is involved, the greatest science of all sciences. <a title="Spy satellite to be shot down" href="http://www.livescience.com/space/news/080219-satellite-shootdown.html" target="_blank">LiveScience does a good job explaining the process</a>.</li>
</ul>
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