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	<title>Allan Young's Incoherence &#187; Washington DC</title>
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	<link>http://allantyoung.com</link>
	<description>A Latticework of Thought, Action &#38; Joyful Foibles</description>
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		<title>The Myth of Venture Capital</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/07/the-myth-of-venture-capital/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/07/the-myth-of-venture-capital/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 09:04:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Entrepreneurship]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Innovation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Startups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venture Capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[angel groups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[angel investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bay Area]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[critical mass]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massachusetts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[myth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mythologizing]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[New England]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Silicon Slopes]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[social networking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[talent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Utah]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VC]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[venture capitalists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington DC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/07/the-myth-of-venture-capital/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In highly entrepreneurial hot spots like Silicon Valley, San Francisco where I grew up, Route 128, Washington DC, Seattle, Los Angeles where an impressive raft of social networking and new media startups has sprouted, and biotechnology-focused San Diego, critical mass of entrepreneurial activity organically attracts venture capital. In other words, a rich &#8220;ecosystem&#8221; &#8211; where entrepreneurs can assemble readily available capital, talent, and relationships &#8211; can only come about when entrepreneurs first satisfy the initial criterion of creating innovation and value to a significant degree. In emerging hot spots such ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/lightbulbabstract.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-205" title="Light Bulb" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/lightbulbabstract.jpg" alt="" width="75" height="75" /></a>In highly entrepreneurial hot spots like Silicon Valley, San Francisco where I grew up, Route 128, Washington DC, Seattle, Los Angeles where an impressive raft of social networking and new media startups has sprouted, and biotechnology-focused San Diego, critical mass of entrepreneurial activity organically attracts venture capital. In other words, a rich &#8220;ecosystem&#8221; &#8211; where entrepreneurs can assemble readily available capital, talent, and relationships &#8211; can only come about when entrepreneurs first satisfy the initial criterion of creating innovation and value to a significant degree. In emerging hot spots such as Colorado, Utah or &#8220;<a title="Silicon Slopes" href="http://www.siliconslopes.com/" target="_blank">Silicon Slopes</a>&#8221; where I currently reside, New Mexico, and Pittsburgh, the march towards critical mass is accelerating and their ecosystems are becoming more robust.</p>
<p><a title="NVCA Report - Fastest Growing Regins for Venture Capital - Q4 2007" href="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/nvca_fast_growing_07q4.pdf" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/nvca-q4-2007.jpg" alt="NVCA Report - Fastest Growing Regions for Venture Capital" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="215" height="279" align="left" /></a>When critical mass is achieved, the eagerly welcomed venture capital that forms to service innovative startups becomes a hot topic of conversation. Networking groups begin to get together to talk about how to raise money from venture capitalists. &#8220;Consultants&#8221; come out of the woodwork claiming expertise in helping new companies attract venture capital. Venture capitalists are looked upon as &#8220;masters of the universe&#8221; and treated like rock stars. University business school programs institute curricula aimed at instilling students with an understanding for the process. MBA grads and finance majors from those same university business schools decide they want to become venture capitalists. Local business magazines hyperventilate upon the sexy subject. Entrepreneurs talk in awed tones about their peers who have successfully attracted funding. Angel groups form and hold workshops or seminars about the process of fundraising. Websites with glossaries of mysterious VC lingo spring up out of nowhere.</p>
<p>We have glamorized venture capital beyond reasonableness. We spend an inordinate amount of time, energy, and attention on the subject of venture capital and end up mythologizing it. Because we talk about it so much &#8211; in such reverent tones &#8211; entrepreneurs unfortunately fixate on it at the expense of other critical components to building great companies. Would-be entrepreneurs start to reason that they must get venture funding in order to &#8220;really do something.&#8221; It is a convenient excuse to do nothing. Because we talk about venture capital so much, some of us start to see raising capital as the ultimate measure of success. &#8220;If I could just raise one million dollars, things would be different.&#8221;</p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/venturecapitalcartoonsquarewheel.jpg" alt="Cartoon - Venture Capital and Square Wheel" width="400" height="364" /></p>
<p>Can we talk less about venture capital and more about great ideas and business building? Sure there are some programs that mix in subjects like building a great management team, hiring best practices, networking and relationship building, but venture capital gets the overwhelming majority of attention. What we need more of are entrepreneurs with the ability to figure out if their pet idea is something worth pursuing. At the very least, we need workshops and seminars that help entrepreneurs figure out if their idea, frankly, sucks. We need to talk more about making sure that our ideas are unique and bring some sort of new value to the world. We need to talk about how to execute better than your best competitor. We need entrepreneurs that can focus on the essentials of building great companies.</p>
<p>What entrepreneurs ought to realize is that venture capital follows true innovation and execution. It goes where the action is. It does not precede the action. Entrepreneurs who are willing to put the work in to become savvy about the whole process will come to understand that raising venture capital is relatively easy when compared to out-thinking and outrunning your best competition. It is much easier than keeping customers ecstatic. Raising venture capital is immensely easier than finding and acquiring the scarcest resource of all, great talent. Raising venture capital is not the end game. We need to stop perpetuating the myth.</p>
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		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
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		<title>Investing Linkfest 5/4/08</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/04/investing-linkfest-5408/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/04/investing-linkfest-5408/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 05:50:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkfest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ACS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Affiliated Computer Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AgFeed Industries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American taxpayers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANSS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ansys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[audio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Berkshire Hathaway]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRK-A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charlie Munger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese technology companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNQR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cognitive errors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Concur Technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confirmation bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customer service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital audio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diminishing returns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diminishing returns doctrine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dolby Laboratories]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic stimulus checks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXPE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Expedia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FEED]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ghetto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Halo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ININ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INTC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intel Corporation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interactive Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Yang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LOOP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LoopNet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[massive multiplayer online games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[massively multiplayer online role playing games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MicroStrategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MMOGs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MMORPGs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSTR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq Composite Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-confirmation bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[online gaming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oracle of Omaha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Perfect World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prophet of profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PWRD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Shiller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Salesforce.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shareholder nation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shareholder society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shareholders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOHU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sohu.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South of Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller housing price index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stimulus checks]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[SYMC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxpayers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TeleCommunication Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TianLong Babu]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[underwater mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[value investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[YHOO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/05/04/investing-linkfest-5408/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
The technology sector gets a big surprise with Microsoft (MSFT) announcing that it will cease to pursue the acquisition of Yahoo! (YHOO). Most analysts and market pundits expected Jerry Yang &#38; Company would ultimately accept a deal, albeit at a higher price than Microsoft&#8217;s initial offer. Expect Yahoo! stock to take a precipitous plunge at the market open and the announcement of class action lawsuits from its larger shareholders. While this saga of two tech giants unwinds, plenty of news in the rest of the tech sector deserves attention.
The Nasdaq ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/investinglinkfest20080504.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-199" title="Investing Linkfest 5/4/08" src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/investinglinkfest20080504.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="75" /></a></strong></p>
<p><strong>The technology sector gets a big surprise</strong> with Microsoft (<a title="Microsoft" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) announcing that it will <a title="Microsoft walks away from Yahoo deal" href="http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_9148992" target="_blank">cease to pursue the acquisition</a> of Yahoo! (<a title="Yahoo!" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yhoo" target="_blank">YHOO</a>). Most analysts and market pundits expected Jerry Yang &amp; Company would ultimately accept a deal, albeit at a higher price than Microsoft&#8217;s initial offer. <strong>Expect Yahoo! stock to take a precipitous plunge at the market open</strong> and the announcement of class action lawsuits from its larger shareholders. While this saga of two tech giants unwinds, plenty of news in the rest of the tech sector deserves attention.</p>
<p><a title="What's Hot What's Not 5/4/08" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120976954101463963.html" target="_blank"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/wsj-whwn-20080504.jpg" alt="What's Hot What's Not 5/4/08" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="300" height="364" align="right" /></a>The Nasdaq Composite continues to roar back from the recent market slide with a strong 2.2% gain last week. This makes my <a title="Investing Linkfest 4/17/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/17/investing-linkfest-41708/" target="_blank">tech market bifurcation thesis</a> look increasingly faulty. <strong>The bellwether technology issues have performed well as predicted, but so has the middle tier and even the bottom tier.</strong> International growth accounts for much of the resilience and strong performance. Technology companies reporting satisfactory or better results included Affiliated Computer Services (<a title="Affiliated Computer Services" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=acs" target="_blank">ACS</a>), a business processing outsourcing and information technology services firm, Ansys (<a title="Ansys" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=anss" target="_blank">ANSS</a>), a provider of engineering simulation software, Expedia (<a title="Expedia" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=expe" target="_blank">EXPE</a>), the online travel e-commerce company, TeleCommunication Systems (<a title="TeleCommunication Systems" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tsys" target="_blank">TSYS</a>), a provider of carrier-class wireless technology, Concur Technologies (<a title="Concur Technologies" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cnqr" target="_blank">CNQR</a>), a maker of expense management software, LoopNet (<a title="LoopNet" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=loop" target="_blank">LOOP</a>), a website for commercial real estate listings, and Symantec (<a title="Symantec" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=symc" target="_blank">SYMC</a>), the security software giant.</p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/warrenbuffettannualmeeting.jpg" alt="Warren Buffett - Berkshire Annual Meeting" hspace="8" vspace="8" width="150" height="150" align="left" /><strong>What about the rest of the market?</strong> Hallelujah! The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, has openly <a title="Buffett Says Credit Crisis Ebbs for Wall Street Firms" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aeLirKvQi5jw&amp;refer=worldwide" target="_blank">stated that the worst of the recent credit crisis has passed</a>. Many value lemmings and growth copycats will take this as reason to dive back into the market with enthusiasm. Indeed, we are an eager shareholder society and <strong>investing is both pastime and profession. Investing might very well be religion.</strong> It is so for the pilgrims that never miss the Berkshire Hathaway (<a title="Berkshire Hathaway" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=brka" target="_blank">BRK-A</a>) annual pow-wow to join in the proceedings presided over by high priests Buffett and Munger. The event occurred just this past week and, as usual, Buffett <a title="Buffett to investors: Think small" href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/03/news/companies/buffett.am.wrap/?postversion=2008050316" target="_blank">warned shareholders of smaller future returns</a> for Berkshire. This warning is coming from the greatest investor alive, the prophet of profit, and the diminishing returns doctrine is probably the one part of the gospel the congregation finds hard to believe. <strong>We&#8217;ve all grown accustomed to his ability to outperform and deliver us from the evil of poor returns.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Macro</strong></p>
<p>American taxpayers should be receiving their economic stimulus checks in the coming weeks. Will this provide the country with a sudden explosion of consumer spending? The bureaucrats in Washington believe that the increased spending will pull us out of the recent economic slump. But what will we probably do with our returned tax dollars? For the legions of homeowners who have seen the value of their most significant asset plummet in price, will they put the check towards a mortgage payment? Robert Shiller, the economist and father of the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s/Case Shiller housing price index, predicts that housing declines have not come to an end and <a title="Portfolio - Robert Shiller Interview" href="http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/the-world-according-to/2008/05/02/Interview-With-Robert-Shiller" target="_blank">further declines could exceed the damage suffered during the Great Depression</a>. In that scenario, homeowners on the brink of mortgage default would just walk away and spend their stimulus checks elsewhere instead of holding onto homes with values underwater.</p>
<p><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/cartoonstimuluscheck.jpg" alt="Cartoon - Stimulus Check" width="500" height="398" /></p>
<p><strong>Micro</strong></p>
<p><a title="Interactive Intelligence profit drops, sales rise" href="http://cms.ibj.com/ASPXPages/6iframes/FrontEndArticlesDetailPage.aspx?ArticleID=14306&amp;NoFrame=1" target="_blank">Interactive Intelligence profit drops, sales rise</a> &#8211; Confirmation bias, the cognitive error whereby investors search only for evidence that confirms their beliefs, is a very common mistake. With the second paragraph of this post, I run the risk of committing the more surreal non-confirmation bias, whereby I cite only evidence that refutes my <a title="Investing Linkfest 4/27/08" href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/04/27/investing-linkfest-42708/" target="_blank">tech market bifurcation thesis</a>. So I best avoid this masochistic foible by pointing to Interactive Intelligence&#8217;s (<a title="Interactive Intelligence" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=inin" target="_blank">ININ</a>) somewhat disappointing earnings report. The company&#8217;s call center management software generated record sales but profits actually declined from the year ago quarter. <strong>There has been much debate about where corporations cut back expenditures in recessionary or slowing economic environments. The consensus is that advertising is the first thing cut. I don&#8217;t think so; I believe that short-sighted corporations tend to cut customer service functions and budgets.</strong> If true, ININ remains in trouble. <strong>Full Disclosure: </strong><em>I currently have a long or short position in ININ in one or more of my private investment partnerships.</em></p>
<p><a title="MicroStrategy 1Q profit declines as operating expenses rise" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080502/earns_microstrategy.html?.v=1" target="_blank">MicroStrategy 1Q profit declines as operating expenses rise</a> &#8211; Here is another case of a technology company that was able to grow sales while seeing profits decline. <strong>Are second-tier technology companies losing pricing and negotiation power? Are large corporate customers taking advantage of the slowing economy as an opportunity to demand better terms from technology suppliers?</strong> I remember when MicroStrategy (<a title="MicroStrategy" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mstr" target="_blank">MSTR</a>) generated as much hype as Salesforce.com (<a title="Salesforce.com" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CRM" target="_blank">CRM</a>); the promise of business intelligence software was as big as sales management software. Michael Saylor&#8217;s company took investors on an 18.6% dip last Friday.</p>
<p><a title="Sohu 1Q profit soars with rising brand ad, online game sales" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080428/earns_sohu.html?.v=2" target="_blank">Sohu 1Q profit soars with rising brand ad, online game sales</a> &#8211; Last week, I profiled Sohu.com (<a title="Sohu.com" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sohu" target="_blank">SOHU</a>), a Chinese Internet portal and online gaming company. Since then, the company reported record results and the stock rose an astonishing 25.6% in the space of five trading days. Sohu.com&#8217;s TianLong Babu massive multiplayer online game has become a best seller. The long term prospects for this company should be extremely bright and so are the long term prospects for the gaming industry in Asia. However, buyers of the stock now would be paying premium prices.</p>
<p><a title="Perfect World Collaborates with Intel and Haier" href="http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080430/cnw029.html?.v=18" target="_blank">Perfect World Collaborates with Intel and Haier</a> &#8211; Perfect World (<a title="Perfect World" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pwrd" target="_blank">PWRD</a>) is another online gaming company based in China. The new alliances with Intel (<a title="Intel Corporation" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=intc" target="_blank">INTC</a>) and Haier give it some serious marketing muscle to push its massive multiplayer online games (MMOGs). They&#8217;re usually called &#8220;massively multiplayer online role playing games&#8221; (MMORPGs) but I&#8217;m going to keep it short and sweet. I&#8217;m also going to assume that future large scale games will not all be role playing game formats. Someone is going to produce a smash hit with a massive scale first person shooter like Halo.</p>
<p><a title="Dolby posts higher Q2 profit; raises 2008 view" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG6971420080501?rpc=44" target="_blank">Dolby posts higher Q2 profit; raises 2008 view</a> &#8211; I used to take the public bus to high school in the ghetto and pass by the red brick building that houses Dolby Laboratories (<a title="Dolby Laboratories" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dlb" target="_blank">DLB</a>). San Francisco was an interesting place to grow up. One minute I&#8217;m riding the bus through the South of Market neighborhood and checking out the shingles of creative technology companies and the next minute I&#8217;m riding through the ghetto looking at beat up cars and pit bulls loosely chained behind chain link fences. Unlike in the digital video space, where scores of competing codecs vie for dominance, the digital audio space is in fact dominated by Dolby technology.</p>
<p><a title="AgFeed Industries Completes Previously Announced Acquisition" href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0392542.htm" target="_blank">AgFeed Industries Completes Previously Announced Acquisition</a> &#8211; China&#8217;s economy is bound to slow down just a bit as global macro factors diminish the competitive advantage of its low cost labor force. Nevertheless, population growth is unlikely to slow much and all those billions of hungry mouths to feed bode well for food companies. AgFeed Industries (<a title="AgFeed Industries" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=feed" target="_blank">FEED</a>) produces hog feed and chicken feed. The company is aggressively expanding into hog raising and turning itself into a vertically integrated food producer.</p>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Real Estate Schadenfreude</title>
		<link>http://allantyoung.com/2008/03/07/real-estate-schadenfreude/</link>
		<comments>http://allantyoung.com/2008/03/07/real-estate-schadenfreude/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Mar 2008 07:28:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance Sheet of Households]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bay Area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[easy credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homeowners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[illiquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Brinkmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Zandi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MCO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's Corporation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Bankers Association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[property taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate boom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco Bay Area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[schadenfreude]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Postal Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington DC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://allantyoung.com/2008/03/07/real-estate-schadenfreude/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As a renter, I&#8217;ve always thought that I had the advantage of not having to worry about property taxes, home maintenance, unruly tenants, and worst of all the illiquidity that homeowners or real estate investors suffer from.  The real estate boom almost shook my conviction but the delirious giggles caused by incessant price appreciation and easy credit thankfully reached an audible decible.  I reasoned that something was awry when my close friend, a U.S. Postal letter carrier at the time, managed to lever up with mortgages on three ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a renter, I&#8217;ve always thought that I had the advantage of not having to worry about property taxes, home maintenance, unruly tenants, and worst of all the illiquidity that homeowners or real estate investors suffer from.  The real estate boom almost shook my conviction but the delirious giggles caused by incessant price appreciation and easy credit thankfully reached an audible decible.  I reasoned that something was awry when my close friend, a U.S. Postal letter carrier at the time, managed to lever up with mortgages on three San Francisco Bay Area properties.  I waited for something to break, but even I could not wish this on anyone.</p>
<p>I <a href="http://allantyoung.com/2008/02/25/latticework-linkfest-22508/" title="Latticework Linkfest 2/25/08" target="_blank">referenced last week Mark Zandi of Economomy.com</a> (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mco" title="Moody's Corporation" target="_blank">MCO</a>)regarding the increased likelihood of homeowners walking out of their mortgages and homes as the amount they owe becomes greater than the value of their properties.  <a href="http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aTrusEALeA4s&amp;refer=home" title="Bloomberg reports on record foreclosures" target="_blank">Bloomberg just reported</a> that foreclosures are on the rise as owners &#8220;give up&#8221; on &#8220;underwater&#8221; homes.</p>
<blockquote><p>U.S. mortgage foreclosures rose to an all-time high at the end of 2007 as borrowers with adjustable-rate loans walked away from properties before their payments increased, the <a href="http://www.mortgagebankers.org/" title="Mortgage Bankers Association" target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a> said today.</p>
<p>New foreclosures jumped to 0.83 percent of all home loans in the fourth quarter from 0.54 percent a year earlier. Late payments rose to a 23-year high, the organization said in a report today.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re seeing people give up even before they get to the reset because they couldn&#8217;t afford the home in the first place,&#8221; said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based trade group.</p></blockquote>
<p>A couple days ago, <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/will-helicopter.html" title="Big Picture - Bernanke to Banks: Take the Hit" target="_blank">Ben Bernanke essentially said that banks should &#8220;take the hit&#8221;</a> and help distressed borrowers by writing down principle.  Two days later, the Federal Reserve just released the <a href="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMtAE9q4i4ySQ0eV_qZefmRQD8V84HA00" title="Homeowners' equity at record low" target="_blank">Balance Sheet of Households report showing that homeowners&#8217; equity as a percentage of household real estate has shrunk to a record low</a>.  As the panic grows, housing prices will continue to plunge and we will see more owners with negative equity situations.</p>
<p>We likely have not seen the end of the bad news.  It will be interesting to see what creative methods borrowers will employ to escape their financial predicaments.  What kind of shenanigans will we see?</p>
<p align="center"><img src="http://allantyoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/houseonfire.jpg" alt="House on fire" height="249" width="507" /></p>
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